Analysts Predict Stablecoins ETPs And Legislation Will Drive Q4 Crypto Returns
Cryptocurrency prices will likely be driven by crypto market structure legislation, stablecoins and exchange-traded products in the fourth quarter, analysts told Cointelegraph. The prediction comes after digital asset treasuries dominated the third quarter performance across major cryptocurrencies.
Crypto asset manager Grayscale's research team said the CLARITY Act represents comprehensive financial services legislation. The bill could serve as a catalyst for deeper integration with traditional financial services. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a generic listing standard for commodity-based ETPs. This approval increases the number of crypto assets accessible to US investors through exchange-traded products.
Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Australian crypto broker Swyftx, told Cointelegraph that more money flows into crypto through funds and automated contributions. A report from River found that ETFs purchase an average of 1,755 Bitcoin per day in 2025. Unless the market faces unexpected disruption, Bitcoin will likely hit new highs before year end, which will fuel altcoin performance.
Why These Developments Matter For Crypto Markets
The convergence of regulatory clarity and institutional access creates conditions for sustained market growth. Grayscale Research expects crypto to benefit from Federal Reserve rate cuts after the Fed's September 17 rate adjustment. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0% to 4.25%.
Stablecoin legislation particularly stands out as a growth driver. The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July, provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. This legislation has accelerated stablecoin adoption, with circulating supply rising 16% to more than $290 billion during the quarter. Stablecoin growth should benefit smart contract platforms that host these tokens, including Ethereum, Solana, Tron and BNB Chain.
Citi projects stablecoin issuance will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030 in its base case scenario, with a bull case of $4 trillion. The bank estimates stablecoins could support up to $100 trillion in annual transactions by 2030 if they circulate at velocity comparable to traditional fiat currencies. Edward Carroll from MHC Digital Group noted that stablecoin infrastructure companies should see particular benefits from regulatory clarity.
We previously covered how the US government established its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve through executive action in March 2025, creating a foundation for institutional crypto adoption that now supports broader market infrastructure development.
Industry Wide Implications For Cryptocurrency Adoption
The regulatory and institutional developments create ripple effects across the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of Apollo Crypto, expects Q4 to include additional ETF approvals in the US for staked assets. Revenue generating projects in decentralized finance will continue to perform well as stablecoins and real world assets remain major themes.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adds another layer of support for crypto markets. Lower interest rates typically drive investors toward risk assets as traditional fixed income yields become less attractive. Rate expectations can amplify or delay rotation between Bitcoin and altcoins depending on liquidity conditions and risk appetite.
However, skeptics point to potential headwinds. Rate cut expectations might disappoint as the economy and labor market perform better than the Fed initially feared when it lowered rates. Traditional financial firms entering the stablecoin space will face constraints from their reliance on high fee customer bases, which could limit their competitive ability against existing players like Tether.
The approval of generic ETP listing standards represents a shift toward broader crypto accessibility. This development allows more digital assets to trade on exchanges without requiring individual SEC approval under Section 19b of the Securities Exchange Act. The change positions US capital markets to remain competitive in digital asset innovation while expanding investment options for institutional and retail investors.
Market participants now watch for Congressional action on the CLARITY Act and additional Fed policy moves. The combination of regulatory clarity, institutional infrastructure and favorable monetary conditions creates a foundation for sustained crypto market expansion through the fourth quarter and beyond.
