Analyzing Bitcoin's Potential Surge Beyond $100K: Insights from Academic Research

Exploring a range of academic studies, this article delves into the compelling evidence suggesting Bitcoin's potential for an extraordinary surge in value following the anticipated 2024 halving.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Potential Surge Beyond $100K: Insights from Academic Research

Bitcoin halving is a significant mechanism in the cryptocurrency's design, reducing the reward for mining new blocks by half approximately every four years. This event plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's supply and pricing dynamics. This article explores academic perspectives and data-driven research to predict Bitcoin's potential to exceed the $100,000 threshold post-halving.

  1. Xiong, Liu, & Zhao (2020): This study's approach to analyzing Bitcoin price cycles could be particularly relevant for the 2024 halving. The predictive models used could help estimate the extent of price fluctuations and potential bubble formation around the halving event, offering insights into the likely market dynamics in 2024 (Xiong, Liu, & Zhao, 2020).
  2. Taskinsoy (2021): The historical analysis of price trends following previous halvings by Taskinsoy suggests a pattern that might repeat in 2024. The study's observations of price surges and subsequent corrections could inform investors and analysts about what to expect post-2024 halving (Taskinsoy, 2021).
  3. Yang (2021): Yang's research on next-day Bitcoin price forecasting using deep learning could be crucial for predicting the market's immediate reaction to the 2024 halving. The application of these predictive methods may provide short-term insights into price movements during this period (Yang, 2021).
  4. De Caux, Bernardini, & Viterbo (2020): The use of LSTM and GRU RNNs for forecasting Bitcoin values could be especially useful in modeling the 2024 halving's impact on Bitcoin's minute-granulated price, offering a tool for investors to navigate the event's immediate aftermath (De Caux, Bernardini, & Viterbo, 2020).
  5. Gurrib, Kamalov, & Smail (2021): As market sentiment will play a significant role in the 2024 halving, this study's sentiment analysis method combined with LDA could offer valuable predictions on Bitcoin's price direction around the event (Gurrib, Kamalov, & Smail, 2021).
  6. Banjade (2020): This research highlights that non-traditional factors are more predictive of Bitcoin's price, which could be crucial in understanding the unique market behavior expected during the 2024 halving, beyond standard economic indicators (Banjade, 2020).
  7. Oniha (2020): The study's focus on Bitcoin's influence during crises could shed light on its resilience and behavior during the 2024 halving, particularly if global economic conditions are unstable at that time (Oniha, 2020).
  8. He, Zhong, & Wang (2022): The comparative model for Bitcoin and gold can be relevant for the 2024 halving, as it may help investors understand how Bitcoin's behavior diverges from traditional assets in response to a significant supply change (He, Zhong, & Wang, 2022).
  9. Lamothe-Fernández et al. (2020): This research into deep learning methodologies for Bitcoin price prediction could offer advanced tools for accurately forecasting how the 2024 halving will impact Bitcoin's valuation (Lamothe-Fernández et al., 2020).
  10. Albariqi & Winarko (2020): The baseline neural network models proposed for short-term and long-term price changes could provide crucial predictive insights for both the immediate and extended effects of the 2024 Bitcoin halving (Albariqi & Winarko, 2020).
  11. Karabiyik & Ergün (2021): The ANFIS model's effective economic and technical variable forecasting could be highly relevant in predicting Bitcoin prices around the 2024 halving, helping investors make informed decisions (Karabiyik & Ergün, 2021).
  12. Huang et al. (2022): The ARIMA method's proven accuracy in short-term prediction can be crucial for forecasting Bitcoin's price trend during and immediately after the 2024 halving, offering investors a tool for strategic planning (Huang et al., 2022).
Based on the insights gleaned from a range of academic studies, it is reasonable to posit that Bitcoin's value could experience a remarkable upsurge following the 2024 halving event. We are pointing towards a scenario where the halving could act as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin's price escalation.

Historical data and predictive modeling, as analyzed in studies by Xiong, Liu, and Zhao (2020) and Taskinsoy (2021), present a compelling narrative of Bitcoin's price behavior in response to previous halvings. These studies suggest a cyclical pattern where each halving leads to substantial price increases, driven by the reduced rate of new Bitcoin entering the market, thereby creating a scarcity effect. This historical precedent offers a solid basis for expecting a similar outcome in 2024. Complementing this, advanced predictive models employing machine learning and deep learning techniques, exemplified in the works of Yang (2021) and De Caux, Bernardini, and Viterbo (2020), provide sophisticated tools for forecasting Bitcoin's price trajectory. These models have shown considerable accuracy in short-term predictions, reinforcing the possibility of a post-halving surge.

Moreover, the unique market dynamics of Bitcoin, as discussed by Banjade (2020), separate it from traditional financial assets. This uniqueness could mean that standard financial models may underestimate Bitcoin's growth potential post-halving. Furthermore, the influence of market sentiment, as explored by Gurrib, Kamalov, and Smail (2021), should not be underestimated. The halving event is likely to generate positive sentiment and heightened investor interest, further fueling the price increase. When these factors combine—historical trends, predictive accuracy of advanced models, unique market behavior, and positive market sentiment—they paint a scenario where Bitcoin's value could soar to unprecedented heights following the 2024 halving. While predictions in the volatile cryptocurrency market are inherently uncertain, the confluence of these factors provides a strong basis for anticipating significant growth in Bitcoin's value post-2024 halving.

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