Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $100K Amid Macroeconomic Pressures
Maelstrom Fund Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes has warned Bitcoin could retrace to $100,000 due to mounting macroeconomic pressures. According to Cointelegraph, Hayes sold over $13 million worth of cryptocurrency assets in anticipation of further market weakness.
Hayes offloaded $8.32 million worth of Ethereum, $4.62 million of Ethena and $414,700 of Pepe memecoin over recent days. His wallet now holds $28.3 million in tokens, with $22.95 million parked in USDC stablecoin. The prominent crypto investor linked the recent pullback to renewed tariff fears following the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added in July.
Hayes also pointed to sluggish credit growth in major economies as a factor limiting nominal GDP growth. Bitcoin has fallen 7.7% from its $123,000 all-time high set on July 14, while Ethereum dropped 12.5% since reaching $3,900 on July 28. A Bitcoin price drop to $100,000 would represent an 18.7% correction from current levels.
Why This Matters
Hayes' warning carries weight given his track record in cryptocurrency markets and institutional experience. AiInvest reports that institutional Bitcoin allocation has surged to 59% of investors holding at least 10% of their portfolios in crypto by Q2 2025. This institutional dominance means large-scale selling by prominent figures like Hayes can have greater market impact.
The macro concerns Hayes identified directly affect Bitcoin's emerging role as an institutional asset. With global inflationary pressures persisting and central banks expanding monetary bases, Bitcoin's fixed supply narrative has positioned it as a hedge against currency devaluation. However, tight credit conditions and softening job markets may pressure risk-on assets, testing institutional conviction.
We previously reported that 15 US states are moving forward with plans for Bitcoin reserves, with Pennsylvania, Arizona, and New Hampshire proposing allocations up to 10% of public funds for Bitcoin purchases. These government initiatives could provide price support during institutional selling periods.
Industry Implications
Hayes' bearish outlook contrasts sharply with growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Fidelity Digital Assets research positions Bitcoin as a preeminent global macro asset, noting its sensitivity to inflation, interest rates, and GDP fluctuations rather than company-specific factors.
The divergence between short-term technical concerns and long-term institutional adoption reflects Bitcoin's maturing market structure. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas notes that since BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF filing, Bitcoin has experienced much less volatility and fewer dramatic drawdowns. This suggests the asset may be past the days of major double-digit corrections that characterized earlier market cycles.
However, the current environment tests this thesis directly. AiInvest data shows spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $80 billion in assets under management by Q2 2025, creating a structural floor for prices. Yet speculative short-dollar trades fueled by AI-driven equity rallies continue to amplify near-term risks, potentially validating Hayes' cautious positioning despite longer-term institutional support.
