Bitcoin ETFs Shed $842 Million in Two Days as Election Gains Fade
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430 million on Thursday and another $412 million on Friday. Ether funds lost about $100 million on Thursday, which brought the combined Bitcoin and Ether total that day to $530 million.
The selling erased the optimism that followed the Democratic sweep of the US midterms. On Wednesday, Bitcoin briefly topped $80,000 and the two fund groups took in $128 million combined. By Friday, Bitcoin had dipped to $74,762, its lowest level since Aug. 21.
What Happened This Week
Farside Investors data shows a choppy week for Bitcoin ETFs. Monday lost $398.6 million and Tuesday lost $115.6 million. Wednesday brought $74.6 million in inflows, which ended a three-session outflow run of $1.16 billion.
Thursday and Friday reversed that. The weekly total came to roughly $1.28 billion in net withdrawals, the largest weekly outflow in this stretch.
BlackRock’s IBIT drove most of it. The fund lost $201 million Wednesday, $105 million Thursday and $403 million Friday, which extended its outflow streak to six sessions. It has now shed more than $1.2 billion since Oct. 30.
Fidelity’s FBTC moved the other way on Friday and took in $42.8 million. The day before, FBTC had led Thursday’s outflows with about $200 million.
Year-to-date Bitcoin ETF flows stood at about negative $510 million after Thursday’s close. Friday’s withdrawal pushed that figure lower.
What Drove the Reversal
Stocks led the move. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Thursday, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025, according to Reuters. Traders rotated out of tech on concerns about AI spending and possible Democratic policy toward the sector.
Other pressure came from abroad. South Korea’s KOSPI index was halted after an 8% crash tied to AI regulation fears. Oil also climbed, with WTI back above $90 a barrel amid reports of fresh tanker strikes in the US-Iran conflict.
Friday added a rate problem. The US economy created 165,000 jobs in October against a forecast of 65,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. CME FedWatch now prices a 76.8% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, up from 66.9%.
Stocks bounced on Friday, with the Nasdaq up 1.8% in the first hour. Bitcoin did not follow. Liquidity-sensitive assets tend to struggle when markets expect tighter policy.
How Bitcoin Got Here
Bitcoin set its all-time high of about $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025. The next nine months brought a deep correction. A liquidation cascade in early June 2026 wiped out more than $3 billion in leveraged longs. Bitcoin bottomed near $58,000 around the turn of June and July, a drop of roughly 54%.
The recovery was slow but real. Bitcoin climbed back toward $78,000 in September and traded near $86,000 in early October. On Sept. 23, a near-$1 billion inflow day lifted 2026 Bitcoin ETF flows positive for the first time since April, according to Galaxy’s Alex Thorn.
That strength faded as October closed. Outflows returned on Oct. 30 and continued into November. The midterm result gave a brief lift, but the equity sell-off removed it within two sessions.
Bitcoin traded near $75,900 on Saturday morning. That is about 40% below the peak.
The Case for Concern
The chart is the main worry. Bitcoin is testing its 50-week moving average, which sits between roughly $75,500 and $77,500 depending on the data source. The level has acted as support since mid-September.
Keith Alan of Material Indicators said the weekly close would decide whether the level holds. If it fails, he sees $69,000 as the next target. Prediction-market traders on Kalshi also price a drop toward $70,000 in November.
Analyst Rekt Capital pointed to May, when Bitcoin ranged near $80,000 before breaking down to $57,000 in late June. The current setup looks similar. Mining is also shifting, as Core Scientific plans to leave Bitcoin mining by year-end for its AI business.
The Case for Calm
The outflows are small next to the asset itself. The $842 million that left on Thursday and Friday equals about 0.055% of Bitcoin’s market value. Analysts note that single-day withdrawals of this size are under 1% of total ETF assets, which stand near $96 billion.
Bitcoin’s drawdown is also shallower than in earlier cycles. Prior peaks were followed by drops of 77% to 85%. Some cycle analysts see the June low as the bottom.
Michaël van de Poppe expects Bitcoin and the Nasdaq to bottom around Friday, possibly after a sweep of $75,000. Dean Lyulkin, CEO of Cardiff, said household balance sheets and banks are stronger than before 2008. He still flagged commercial real estate, private credit and AI spending as weak points.
What to Watch Next
The first test is the weekly close above or below the 50-week average. Next is whether IBIT’s redemptions slow, since one fund has driven most of the selling. The December Fed meeting is the larger event, because a hike would raise the cost of holding risk assets.
ETF flows follow price more than they lead it, as DWF Labs argued this week. A recovery in stocks and steadier rate expectations would likely bring the buyers back. Without them, $75,000 is the level to watch.
