Bitcoin Treasury Companies Face NAV Collapse As Retail Investors Lose Billions
Cointelegraph reports that net asset values in digital asset treasury companies have collapsed. Research firm 10x Research stated Friday the age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies. The firms issued shares far above their real Bitcoin value until the illusion vanished.
Digital asset treasuries transferred wealth from retail investors who overpaid for shares into actual Bitcoin for the company. Shareholders lost billions while executives accumulated real BTC. 10x Research used Metaplanet as an example, noting the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury firm transformed a market capitalization of $8 billion supported by just $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings into a $3.1 billion market cap backed by $3.3 billion in BTC.
Retail investors paid two to seven times the actual Bitcoin value when buying these shares during the hype. Now those premiums have vanished and many shareholders are underwater. Strategy experienced a similar boom-and-bust cycle in its net asset value, which has resulted in a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases. Strategy stock gained 2% on Friday ending at $289.87. However, it has fallen 39% since its all-time high closing price of $473.83 in November 2024.
Market Reset Hits Corporate Buyers Hard
The NAV normalization has created entry points for investors. Companies now trading at or below NAV offer pure Bitcoin exposure with optionality on future alpha generation. The Block reports that 25% of public Bitcoin treasury firms now have market caps worth less than the value of their BTC holdings as of September 2025. When firms trade below NAV, issuing shares becomes dilutive because it gives away more ownership via undervalued shares than the value it receives in return.
Lower premiums mean less capacity to buy more Bitcoin. Average daily purchases by treasury firms fell to the lowest level since May. Strategy has seen its premium fall to 1.26, the lowest since March 2024. This reduces Strategy's ability to purchase BTC and points toward lower buyside demand from one of the most important supply absorbers over the past year. Bitcoin treasury companies bought an average of 1,428 BTC per day in September so far.
Treasury firms acting as pure-play accumulation vehicles should not trade at a premium to their balance sheet due to higher cost burdens. These include advisory fees, insider incentives and complex capital structures. We previously covered how 15 US states are moving forward with plans for Bitcoin reserves, including Pennsylvania's pioneering legislation. This broader institutional adoption reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin's role as a strategic reserve asset despite the current treasury company struggles.
Treasury Model Faces Selection Pressure
The shakeout has separated real operators from marketing machines. Firms that survive this transition will be battle-tested, well-capitalized and equipped to generate consistent returns. 10x Research stated that digital asset treasury firms with strong capital bases and trading-savvy management teams may still generate meaningful alpha. Bitcoin itself will continue to evolve as these companies adapt to the new environment.
Bitcoin Magazine reports that dilution has weighed heavily on share prices. Strategy's diluted share count rose from around 97 million in 2020 to over 300 million in 2025. This reflects the scale of capital raising for Bitcoin purchases. The slowing accumulation has made investors less willing to pay premiums for shares. Without continuous and major accumulation, the model loses its appeal.
The NAV premium across the sector will likely trend toward one as more companies adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The first mover advantage has diminished with dozens of treasury companies and ETFs now available. Historically, Strategy commanded a prominent NAV premium as one of the only ways for investors to gain leveraged Bitcoin exposure. That competitive moat has eroded. Metaplanet shares lost 6.5% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange yesterday falling to 402 yen. They have dropped 79% since their mid-June peak of 1,895 yen.
