CryptoQuant Confirms Bitcoin Has Been in Bear Market Since November
CryptoQuant's head of research believes Bitcoin entered a bear market in November. According to Cointelegraph, Julio Moreno said most metrics he uses for the bull score index turned bearish in early November. The index measures market conditions using network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity.
Bitcoin started 2025 at around $93,000 before peaking at $126,080 in October. The asset ended the year lower than it began, trading at approximately $88,543 as of Friday. Moreno confirmed the bear market thesis after Bitcoin fell below its one-year moving average. This technical indicator represents the average price of an asset over 12 months and shows long-term trends.
The CryptoQuant analyst predicts the bear market bottom will likely reach the $56,000 to $60,000 range. This forecast is based on Bitcoin's realized price and past performance. A drop from Bitcoin's all-time high to $56,000 represents a roughly 55% drawdown.
Market Impact and Investor Implications
This analysis goes against numerous analyst predictions that saw 2026 as a growth year for Bitcoin. The bear market assessment creates uncertainty for investors who positioned themselves for continued price appreciation. BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin broke below its 365-day moving average for the first sustained period since early 2022.
Institutional demand patterns show clear shifts in late 2025. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.4 billion in net outflows in November 2025, according to AInvest. This reversal represents cooling institutional interest driven by macroeconomic uncertainty. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $2.34 billion in redemptions during this period.
The 55% drawdown Moreno predicts would be less severe than previous bear markets. Historical Bitcoin bear markets have seen 70% to 80% declines from peak prices. This reduced severity could reflect Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class. We previously documented how Bitcoin reserves offer governments protection against traditional financial system risks, which may contribute to more stable price action.
Structural Changes in Cryptocurrency Markets
The current market environment differs from previous bear cycles in several key ways. No high-profile crypto-related collapses have occurred similar to 2022's Terra ecosystem, Celsius Network, and FTX failures. These major bankruptcies sent shockwaves through the sector and contributed to deeper price declines.
Institutional players now accumulate crypto regularly, creating a more stable demand floor. ETFs and other institutional vehicles don't sell during downturns, according to Moreno. This structural shift represents a fundamental change from earlier cycles where demand contracted sharply. A bigger pool of traders and investors willing to step into the market now exists.
The cryptocurrency market has developed more reliable companies and projects. Corporate treasury purchases and institutional access to ETFs suggest a more mature market structure. Bank of America and Vanguard integrated Bitcoin ETFs into wealth management services in late 2025. These developments create sustained demand that extends beyond traditional four-year cycle frameworks.
However, derivatives markets show weakened risk appetite. Perpetual futures funding rates hit their lowest level since December 2023. On-chain data reveals overhead supply between $93,000 and $120,000 limiting recovery attempts. These technical factors support the bear market thesis despite improved structural conditions in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
