ISM Manufacturing Index Suggests Bitcoin Bull Market May Extend Into Late 2025
The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has historically aligned with Bitcoin's market cycle peaks, a pattern that could extend the current bull run beyond typical timeframes. According to Cointelegraph, analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted that all three past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this monthly oscillating index. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained below the neutral 50 mark for seven consecutive months, maintaining contraction territory. The correlation between the ISM PMI and Bitcoin price was first popularized by Real Vision's Raoul Pal and has gained traction among macro-focused cryptocurrency analysts.
Colin Talks Crypto stated that if this relationship holds, it would point to a considerably longer cycle than Bitcoin cycles typically run for. The ISM Manufacturing PMI measures US industrial activity, with readings above 50 suggesting economic expansion. A sustained move above that threshold has historically been associated with stronger Bitcoin price performance. Earlier in 2025, the PMI briefly climbed above 50 before slipping back into contraction territory. Manufacturing continues to face headwinds from high tariffs, uncertain trade policy, and soft global demand. These conditions have weighed on the sector and potentially extended the business cycle rather than accelerating it.
Extended Cycle Timeline Benefits Patient Investors
The ISM PMI pattern holds major implications for market participants planning their strategies around Bitcoin cycle timing. Multiple cycle prediction models now project peak valuations occurring between September 2025 and March 2026, rather than mid-2025 as earlier forecasts suggested. Bitcoin Magazine reports that Bitcoin is currently 925 days from its cycle low, with approximately 140 to 150 days remaining until a potential top in Q3 or Q4 2025. The Market Value to Realized Value ratio currently stands at 2.26, well below historical peak levels above 7.
Long-term holders with an average cost basis of $33,500 currently show an MVRV of 3.11, far below the maximum of 12 reached during major peaks in previous cycles. This data suggests Bitcoin has significant room for appreciation before reaching overvaluation territory. The longer cycle timeline allows more gradual capital accumulation and reduces the risk of premature profit-taking that characterized shorter, more volatile market cycles. We reported that 15 US states are moving forward with plans for Bitcoin reserves, with Pennsylvania, Arizona, and New Hampshire proposing allocations up to 10% of public funds for Bitcoin purchases. This institutional adoption at the government level reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset during an extended market cycle.
Manufacturing Weakness and Broader Economic Conditions Shape Bitcoin Trajectory
The persistent weakness in manufacturing activity reveals deeper structural challenges facing the US economy. The ISM's September report showed modest improvement but noted that manufacturing's shrinking share of US economic output means PMI contraction does not necessarily forecast a recession. One purchasing manager from the transportation equipment industry told ISM that business continues to be severely depressed, citing shrinking profits and extreme taxes in the form of tariffs. Companies are starting to pass on tariffs through surcharges, raising prices up to 20 percent across the supply chain.
AInvest notes that Bitcoin's growing 0.86 correlation with the S&P 500 reflects its shift from a speculative asset to a macro-sensitive portfolio staple. The Federal Reserve's pivot toward monetary easing has been a cornerstone of Bitcoin's 2025 rally, with real yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities falling to 1.77 percent. However, the potential reinstatement of aggressive US tariffs under the Trump administration could trigger inflationary spikes and force the Fed into a rate-hiking cycle, historically detrimental to Bitcoin. The manufacturing PMI's continued contraction suggests the Federal Reserve will maintain accommodative monetary policy longer than initially expected. This extended period of favorable liquidity conditions could support Bitcoin's price appreciation through late 2025, assuming manufacturing data eventually improves and crosses above the 50 threshold as historical patterns suggest.
