Maelstrom Warns HYPE Token Faces Pressure From $11.9 Billion Unlock Schedule
Cointelegraph reported Monday that Arthur Hayes's Maelstrom fund issued a warning about Hyperliquid's HYPE token facing its "first true test." The fund warned that $11.9 billion worth of tokens will begin vesting on November 29 over a 24-month period for team members.
Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert said current buybacks would absorb only 17% of the monthly supply releases. This leaves approximately $410 million in potential selling pressure each month, according to the research. The vesting schedule represents what Maelstrom called a "Sword of Damocles" moment for the token.
The unlock schedule will distribute about $500 million worth of HYPE tokens monthly starting November 29. Ruppert noted that even growing digital asset treasuries like Sonnet BioTherapeutics are "just a drop in the bucket compared against impending HYPE unlocks." The researcher warned developers who worked for years would have life-changing sums available with "just one click away."
Token Unlocks Create Market Pressure Points
Token unlock events have historically created significant market volatility for cryptocurrency projects. Token Unlocks data shows that large supply releases often lead to selling pressure as early investors and team members liquidate positions. The crypto market has witnessed several high-profile cases where major unlocks caused substantial price corrections.
Research from AInvest shows that August 2025 token unlocks created similar pressures across the market. Projects like SUI faced $159 million in cliff-style releases, with historical data showing 10% price drops following comparable events. The monthly release schedule for HYPE represents one of the largest ongoing unlock events in the current market cycle.
We previously reported that 15 US states are moving forward with plans for Bitcoin reserves, demonstrating growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency assets. However, token unlock events like HYPE's create different market dynamics than established assets, as they introduce new supply rather than redistribute existing tokens.
Competition Threatens Hyperliquid's Market Position
The token unlock warning comes as Hyperliquid faces mounting competition in the decentralized exchange space. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao recently promoted Aster, a rival perpetual futures exchange that crossed $2 billion in total value locked following its token launch. BeInCrypto reported that Aster emerged as a notable challenger with $140 billion in cumulative trading volume.
Maelstrom's researcher suggested the timing of Zhao's Aster promotion was strategic, coming just months before HYPE's major unlock event. The competition has already shown market impact, with HYPE dropping from recent highs near $60 to around $49 as of Monday trading. Meanwhile, rival DEX tokens have gained market share, with perpetual DEX tokens reaching a combined market cap above $22 billion.
The decentralized exchange sector has seen explosive growth, with CoinGecko data showing perpetual trading volume hitting a record $898 billion in Q2 2025. However, Hyperliquid's dominance faces challenges from both established competitors and new entrants backed by major industry figures. The upcoming token unlocks could provide competitors with an opportunity to capture market share during a period of potential HYPE price weakness.
