Analyzing Binance Coin Burns and the Economics Behind Reducing Total Supply

Binance Coin (BNB) is a cryptocurrency launched by the Binance cryptocurrency exchange in 2017. One of the key features of Binance Coin is its quarterly coin burn, where Binance buys back and permanently destroys (burns) a portion of the circulating supply. This reduces the total supply over time and is an important aspect of the economics and value proposition of BNB. In this article, we’ll analyze Binance Coin burns in depth and discuss the reasoning and economic theories behind reducing the total supply.

How Binance Coin Burns Work

Binance burns BNB coins on a quarterly basis, destroying the coins permanently by sending them to a “burn address” that no one has access to. The first burn took place in October 2017 and burns have continued every quarter since then.

The amount burned is calculated based on 20% of Binance’s quarterly profits. Binance buys back the coins to burn from the open market using 20% of profits from the previous quarter. This links the coin burn directly to the exchange’s financial performance. The more profitable Binance is, the more coins they can burn.

As of September 2022, Binance has burned a total of 2,653,419 BNB, worth over $1 billion at current prices. This represents 41% of the initial total supply of 200 million BNB coins. The most recent quarterly burn in July 2022 destroyed 1,335,888 BNB, valued around $285 million.

Economic Theories Behind Coin Burns

There are several economic theories and reasons that underpin Binance's strategy to regularly burn coins:

• Reduced Supply Increases Scarcity - By decreasing the circulating supply over time, existing coins become more scarce. Basic economic theory argues that lower supply with steady or increasing demand will lead to higher value per coin.
• Signals Confidence - A willingness to permanently destroy coins shows confidence in the long-term value. Burning coins costs real money, so companies wouldn't do it if they didn't believe in future growth.
• Rewards Holders - With less supply, each holder's share of the total coins increases. Those holding BNB benefit as scarcity reduces sell pressure.
• Deflationary Model - Destroying coins makes BNB deflationary - the opposite of inflation when money supply increases. Deflationary assets have increasingly captured investor attention.
• Limits Central Control - Coins are decentralized by nature, but burns limit any central party amassing excessive control through unbounded minting.
• Future Planning - Having the flexibility to adjust circulating supply allows adapting to future needs, like ensuring adequate liquidity or maintaining value.

Binance is notably not the first to burn coins - stock-to-flow models and burn mechanisms have long existed. But Binance's scheduled burns have brought the concept firmly into the mainstream crypto consciousness.

The Effects of Coin Burns on Price and Value

The deflationary nature of coin burns - reducing supply without demand falling - are designed to put upward pressure on price over the long-term. The effects, however, are not always immediate or constant.

There is strong evidence of a correlation between BNB coin burns and increased BNB price, but it is not absolute. BNB has increased in value after most coin burns, but there are exceptions. Macro market forces ultimately drive short-term price action.

While they may not immediately impact prices, burns likely provide fundamental long-term support. With 41% of the original BNB supply now destroyed forever, the remaining coins represent a smaller slice of the pie - effectively making each coin more valuable.

Additionally, news of upcoming burns often generates hype and triggers renewed interest in buying and holding BNB, adding to upward momentum. Psychology likely plays a role in burns impacting prices. Overall, reducing total supply should translate to higher per coin value, with burns clearly contributing to BNB's long-term appreciation.

“Destroying supply is like rocket fuel for crypto projects. You’re signaling stability and removing sell pressure. I don’t think BNB would be where it is today without coin burns." - Crypto analyst and author Sam Townsend

Evaluating the Future of BNB Burns

BNB has firmly established itself as one of the top cryptocurrencies globally by market capitalization. But what does the future hold for Binance Coin burns? Here are some possibilities:

• Binance may continue the current burn structure indefinitely. With 59% of the initial supply remaining, they have room to maintain current burn rates for a number of years. This would require substantial and sustained profits.
• Burn amounts may reduce over time. As the BNB supply decreases, burning 20% of profits quarterly requires buying back an increasing portion of remaining coins. Binance may reduce burn percentages.
• Burn triggers could shift from profits to other metrics like trading volume, activity or new users. Aligning burns with growth rather than tying directly to their finances gives more flexibility.
• Coin burns may stop completely at a target supply cap. There is speculation Binance may cease burns if/when the supply falls below 100 million BNB, for example.
• A hybrid approach where burn amounts are dynamic based on growth, volume, market conditions and other factors. Smart contracts could automate more nuanced burn calculations.

While the burns are likely to continue in some capacity, it’s improbable that 100% of BNB supply will be destroyed. At a minimum, Binance needs to maintain liquidity on their exchange and leave room for future company needs. But even reduced burns may provide ongoing value.

How Effective are Coin Burns at Increasing Value?

There is no consensus on how effective coin burns are - debate persists between believers and skeptics. Supporters argue reducing supply is a straightforward way to increase value, while critics suggest burns primarily serve marketing aims more than real economic value.

The crux of the skepticism revolves around whether burns really take coins out of circulation if most holders are investors rather than transacting users. But liquidity needs, psychology and signalling effects mean burns likely still benefit prices regardless. Destroying coins undoubtedly constrains supply, even if velocity remains constant in the short-term.

While not a magic bullet, the economic logic behind burns makes sense. And BNB's long-term price history generally supports the efficacy of their burn strategy. Ultimately burns need to work in combination with utility growth, merchant acceptance and other expansion of the broader BNB ecosystem. But Binance Coin’s approach stands out as an intriguing model of actively managing supply dynamics.

Conclusion

Binance Coin burns exemplify a modern approach to tweaking cryptocurrency supply economics. The quarterly buyback and burn formula rewards BNB holders, puts upward price pressure on remaining supply, and provides innovative utility for the Binance ecosystem.

Burns also make BNB stand out in a crowded field - a deflationary mechanism is still relatively unique. The long-term effects from permanently removing coins from circulation accumulate over time, even if short-term price reactions are not always obvious.

Despite some debate around effectiveness, the fundamental arguments for reducing supply are sound. Binance Coin serves as an important case study for other projects considering active supply management strategies like burns, buybacks or redistributions. With billions of dollars worth of BNB already destroyed, all signs point to coin burns remaining an integral piece of Binance’s future vision.

Should you buy coins that frequently burn their supply?

Coin burns are an intriguing concept for cryptocurrency projects. Permanently destroying tokens seems counterintuitive - shouldn't you want to increase supply? But the economic incentives make sense: lower supply with steady demand equals higher value per coin.

Still, not all burns are created equal. While they aren't a silver bullet, regular and transparent burns are likely a positive indicator. But investors should evaluate burn mechanisms critically:

• What triggers the burns - profits, activity, milestones? More organic drivers have greater impact.
• How frequently do burns occur? Sporadic one-off burns may be less meaningful.
• What percentage of supply is burned? Higher proportions are more significant over time.
• Is there a fixed end point or perpetual burns? Caps versus ongoing dynamic burns imply different strategies.
• Do burns get promoted just for hype? Transparency balances marketing.
• How has burn news historically impacted prices? Correlations suggest real value creation.
• Is the project also focused on utility growth? Burns complement rather than replace real adoption.

If burns pass scrutiny and align with a solid roadmap, they likely offer true economic advantages. But weak or gimmicky burns may not have staying power. Like any crypto investment, holistic evaluation remains key.

How does a shrinking supply impact miners and stakers?

For proof-of-work (PoW) networks like Bitcoin or Ethereum, reducing supply through coin burns raises questions around miner incentives and security budgets. As block rewards dwindle, where will mining revenue come from?

Some argue that higher coin value offsets lower issuance, providing comparable income. Network fees may also take on greater prominence. But dynamic minting based on active miners is another solution to maintain optimal security budgets.

For proof-of-stake (PoS) networks, burns don't necessarily reduce direct staking yields. Lower inflation can increase staking returns when measured in real terms. Higher token prices also raise the absolute value of staking interest.

But shrinking supply has risks - smaller staking pools may concentrate power. Coins becoming too valuable could prevent smaller users from participating. Projects need to carefully balance coin burns with maintaining adequate decentralization.

Overall, responsible burning mechanisms that align incentives should benefit miners and stakers via appreciation. But impacts will depend heavily on having solid cryptoeconomics foundations beyond just supply reductions. Dynamic systems that synthesize multiple variables hold the most promise long-term.