Hedera HBAR, the native cryptocurrency of the Hedera public network, saw a slight 0.13% price increase over the past hour to $0.04855 according to the data. While this upward movement may seem minor, analyzing the broader trends and metrics provides valuable insights into HBAR's performance and potential price trajectory.
With a market capitalization of $1.61 billion, HBAR is a mid-sized cryptocurrency project. The 24-hour trading volume came in at a substantial $31.87 million, demonstrating strong interest and activity among traders.
Digging deeper into the percentage changes over different timeframes paints a clearer picture:
- The 1-day change sits at +0.95%, showing near-term bullish momentum
- However, the 7-day change is -9.54%, indicating broader downtrend pressure over the past week
- The 1-month change is -6.17%, revealing a continued downward trajectory over the past 30 days
- The 6-month change is -24.06%, illustrating prolonged and significant sell-offs for HBAR since March
Technically speaking, HBAR looks to be in a short-term recovery phase within the confines of a longer-term downtrend. The altcoin likely found a temporary bottom around $0.045 and has bounced back above its 20-day moving average. However, it remains trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages—a sign of sustained bearishness.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, HBAR is fighting to hold support around $0.048, which aligns with its recent swing lows. Below this, the $0.045 level marks the critical support zone that could trigger a steeper sell-off if broken.
To the upside, initial resistance is expected at $0.050—a psychologically important level that also coincides with the 50-day moving average. Beyond this, stronger overhead resistance is anticipated around $0.052 and $0.055, near its August highs.
HBAR would need to break out above these resistance zones to signal a potential trend reversal and confirm a new uptrend. Until then, the path of least resistance remains to the downside despite the slight intraday bounce.
HBAR's Price Prediction for the Next 6 Months
Given the predominantly bearish technical picture, my prediction is that HBAR will continue to face selling pressure and gradually grind lower over the next 3 to 6 months. The deteriorating macro environment, risk-off investor appetite, and weakness in the broader altcoin market all paint a gloomy backdrop.
I expect HBAR will likely retest the critical support around $0.045 in the coming weeks before stabilizing around the $0.040 price level. This would represent an additional 15-20% downside from current levels.
Barring any parabolic bull run in the crypto markets, HBAR may be range-bound between $0.040 and $0.050 through early 2024 as it bottoms out and enters an accumulation phase. However, if selling momentum intensifies, HBAR could even dip as low as $0.035 in a worst-case scenario.
The most bullish outcome I foresee is for HBAR to consolidate around $0.045-$0.050 in the near term and build a base before attempting to reclaim its 200-day moving average and retest resistance around $0.060 in early 2024 once macro conditions improve.
Can HBAR Reclaim Its All-Time Highs in 2023?
HBAR hit its record high of $0.570 back in November 2021 amid the exuberant bull market and hype surrounding crypto at the time. Fast forward to today, and HBAR is trading 90% below its peak—a staggering drawdown.
Given the ongoing bear market and HBAR's profoundly bearish technical posture, the probability of it reclaiming its all-time high by the end of 2023 remains slim to none.
For HBAR to fully reverse its downtrend and rise 500% from current levels would require a herculean shift in sentiment and buying momentum. Fundamentally, I do not see any major catalysts on the horizon that could spur such an explosive rally within the next 12 months.
While unlikely, if the crypto markets did see another massive bull frenzy, HBAR may be able to approach its prior highs, but actually exceeding them seems like a distant prospect as 2023 draws to a close. HBAR bulls may have to wait until the next cycle peak in 2025 or beyond for a chance to fully retake its former glory.
What Metrics Signal HBAR Becoming a Top 10 Crypto?
Cracking into the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization would be a major feat for HBAR. Currently ranked #35, what key metrics would need to align for HBAR to ascend to the upper echelons of the crypto ranks?
First and foremost, significant capital inflows leading to an enormous increase in market cap would need to occur. This would likely require extensive VC funding, major corporate partnerships, and large-scale adoption by enterprises and institutions. With greater traction and real-world usage of Hedera's network, HBAR's valuation could swell.
Additionally, substantial improvements in trading volumes and liquidity would be vital. HBAR averaging over $1 billion in daily trading volume would indicate strong interest among investors. Being listed on all major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance and FTX would also assist with liquidity.
Lastly, major upgrades and announcements around Hedera's technical roadmap and future growth could catalyze tremendous speculative interest in HBAR, as seen during bull markets. If developers flock to build dApps on Hedera and network activity picks up exponentially, expectations of parabolic growth could lift HBAR's price dramatically.
In summary, while unlikely in the short-term given current market conditions, a perfect combination of exponential adoption, surging investment, and bullish speculation could potentially propel HBAR into the top tier of crypto assets one day.