At the G20 leaders' summit hosted by India on September 9-10, 2023, the agenda is focused on reviving strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive economic growth globally. This comes at a challenging time amid the lingering impacts of COVID-19, war, sanctions, inflation and climate change threatening development momentum. However, under India's leadership, solutions are emerging to reshape global finance and get the world economy back on track.

India's G20 presidency follows Indonesia's which ended December 1, 2022, and will be succeeded by Brazil starting December 1, 2023. The continuity of the "troika" of past, present and future presidencies allows for close coordination throughout the year on the G20 agenda. With India, Indonesia and Brazil at the helm, representation of emerging markets is significant for steering global finance.

Since the 2009 G20 Toronto summit, the main justification for the G20 as a self-selected body has been providing political backing for sustainable growth nationally and globally. India is reviving this ambition amid a tough landscape.

To understand India's goals, it helps to recall the origins of the G20 leaders' summits in 2008. The G7 invited members to join at the head-of-government level after the failure of Lehman Brothers sent markets plunging in the US and Europe. With the US transition between President Bush and President-elect Obama underway, this brought key countries like China together to encourage cooperation during crisis.

The 2009 London summit proved the G20's willingness to work together, helping calm markets. At the time, inclusive global growth and convergence across countries looked achievable, although inequality was already an issue, especially in the US. Technology was seen as benign. World trade boomed. Conditions favored collective action, although IM

Sustainable Development Stalled Amid Debt and Food Crises

Many developing nations now face unsustainable debt and struggles to ensure food and energy security for their people. As G20 chair, India sees itself representing the global South's interests, even proposing African Union membership like the EU's.

While India has bounced back relatively quickly post-COVID, this is untrue for most of the global South. Development momentum has sharply declined due to the pandemic's aftershocks of war, sanctions and inflation, plus climate change pressures. UN sustainable development goals stagnate as the IMF and World Bank warn of a deep crisis.

However, shifting geopolitics mean this crisis lacks past solidarity. India's G20 finance track focuses on empowering multilateral development banks (MDBs) and debt relief for poor countries within the IMF's common framework.

Financial Cycles Controlled by West Impact Emerging Markets

Research from the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and academics like the London Business School's Helene Rey demonstrates a clear global financial cycle largely driven by major central banks like the US Federal Reserve. This cycle visibly affects emerging market portfolio flows and frontier markets.

Such cycles profoundly impact development finance since the green transition needs capital investment. COVID-19 has exhausted debt capacity, so foreign capital is essential. Expanding MDB lending helps, but the bigger solution is directing North-managed private capital to high-return southern projects.

This requires reimagining global finance's means and ends in ways G7 presidents haven't addressed. India took on the MDB capital adequacy initiative from Indonesia. This weekend's summit may signal if the G7 will explore recommended capital increases.

As Brazil takes over, with sophisticated, integrated capital markets, perhaps it can refocus private finance on the planet's urgent development needs.

Decentralization and Bitcoin Offer Solutions

The current centralized financial system favors the interests of developed nations like the US and EU. However, decentralized solutions like Bitcoin could empower developing countries. By removing middlemen and providing a natively digital, transparent ledger, Bitcoin facilitates direct cross-border transactions. This prevents manipulation by centralized powers and offers financial inclusion for the unbanked. While risks exist, decentralization gives developing nations more autonomy over their financial futures. Integrating Bitcoin into G20 reforms could accelerate sustainable growth worldwide.

Global Fragmentation Looms if Inequities Persist

If wealthier nations continue controlling the financial system to benefit themselves, while poorer nations struggle with unpayable debts, food shortages, and energy access issues, global fragmentation will increase. This could cause geopolitical rifts and stalled development to spiral out of control. Avoiding catastrophe requires a collective commitment to strong, balanced growth across all economies. The G20 must take meaningful steps toward financial inclusion and climate justice, not just protecting the privileged. Cooperation and compassion are urgently needed to steer humanity toward shared prosperity. There are no simple solutions, but India's presidency brings hope for progress.

How can the G20 reform global finance to be more inclusive?

The G20 should push for increased MDB lending capacity and easier access to financing for developing nations. Relieving debt burdens would free up funds for growth. Global coordination on tax avoidance would allow more domestic revenue generation. Updating institutions like the World Bank and IMF to give fairer voting power is also crucial. No single step will fix deep inequities, but the G20 must start walking the path.

What are the biggest obstacles to achieving sustainable development?

Insufficient climate financing and mitigation commitments from developed economies impedes sustainability in the developing world. Unpayable debts also trap poorer nations in cycles of poverty. Lack of infrastructure, healthcare, education access and gender inequality all limit development. Finally, the centralized financial system's lack of transparency and susceptibility to manipulation by a few powerful actors breeds instability. Effectively addressing any of these complex challenges will require open and earnest engagement.

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