Monero (XMR) saw a 1.67% price decline over the past 24 hours, with its value decreasing from $143.01 down to $140.66 as of Saturday, September 2, 2023. This drop brings the privacy-focused cryptocurrency's market capitalization to $2.57 billion. In this report, we will analyze Monero's latest price activity and trading volumes, identify key support and resistance levels, and provide an outlook on where the coin may be headed next.
To start, in the past hour, Monero's price declined by 0.26%. Over the past 7 days, it is down 1.51%. Zooming out further, XMR has dropped 12.09% and 6.86% in the past month and 6 months respectively.
Looking at trading activity, Monero saw $42.85 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours. This points to decent liquidity and investor interest. However, the 1-day and 7-day volume figures are lower than the monthly average of $51.28 million.
Analyzing XMR's price chart, it appears to have found support around the $140 level over the past few days. This marks an important support zone that bulls will want to defend. If selling pressure pushes the price below $140, the next key support is found around $130 which halted declines in late August.
On the upside, Monero faces resistance around $145 and $150. These were prior high points reached in late August that capped further rallies. Bulls will need to push XMR above these levels to signal that the downtrend of the past month may be over.
What's Next for Monero?
Looking ahead, Monero may continue to consolidate between support at $140 and resistance at $150 in the near-term. However, from a longer-term perspective covering the next 6-12 months, I expect XMR will regain its bullish momentum and head higher. Here are some key factors that support a more positive long-term outlook:
- Increased regulatory crackdowns and privacy concerns will highlight the benefits of Monero's private and untraceable transactions. This could boost adoption and demand.
- Development on upgrades like RingCT 3.0 will further strengthen Monero's privacy technology and could bring more investors to the project.
- As a proven and well-established crypto, Monero is less risky than new and unproven altcoins. This could benefit XMR as investors seek safer havens during periods of high volatility.
- Sentiment in the overall crypto market will likely improve in 2023-2024, especially once the Fed pivots on monetary policy. This rising tide would lift all boats, including Monero.
Taking these factors into account, I expect Monero will return to its bullish trend and make a run at its all-time high near $515 over the next 6-12 months. Traders should watch for a decisive break above resistance at $150 to signal the start of a new sustained uptrend.
Can Monero Reach $200 Again Soon?
Monero last reached the $200 level in early June 2022 before the major crypto market sell-off ensued. Given the coin's current price around $140, can XMR make it back to $200 in the near future?
There's certainly a case to be made that Monero could revisit $200 with its next rally. From a technical perspective, if XMR can break out above its short-term resistance around $150, the door opens for a quick move back to $200. The 200-day moving average near $190 would offer some potential resistance, but could be overcome with enough bullish momentum.
Fundamentally, renewed privacy concerns and crypto regulations will continue shining a spotlight on Monero's anonymous transactions. With more exchanges delisting privacy coins, Monero remains one of the few legitimate options for those seeking untraceable crypto transactions. This scarcity factor could drive up demand and prices.
However, macro conditions and investor risk appetite will play a role. If recession fears persist curbing crypto investing generally, Monero may struggle like the rest of the market. But if confidence improves in 2023, XMR at $200 seems reasonable. I would give it a 60% chance within the next 3-6 months if broader sentiment stabilizes.
Will We See Monero Below $100 Again?
Monero hasn't traded under the $100 threshold since mid-2020. But after shedding over 60% from its all-time high, could XMR dip below $100 in this bear market?
In the near-term, I think Monero is unlikely to fall under $100 unless there is a major deterioration in general crypto market conditions. The $100 level represents a key psychological support point that would take a significant breakdown in bullish sentiment to breach. Additionally, from a technical perspective, the $100-$110 zone contains multiple support levels that would need to be broken before a drop below $100.
However, in the event of an extended crypto winter or regulatory restrictions, Monero could conceivably fall below $100 again. If the SEC takes an aggressive anti-crypto stance or privacy coins face existential threats from governments, it could crater prices. Moreover, if macroeconomic headwinds like high inflation persist well into 2023, risky assets like crypto are vulnerable across the board.
In conclusion, I don't expect Monero below $100 in the near-term, but an extended bear market could put XMR back into double digits. Monero's privacy attributes provide some insulation from downside risk, but the coin isn't completely immune from crypto-wide drawdowns. Traders should watch key support levels at $130 and $100 as potential demand zones if prices continues falling.