Popular meme coin Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw a 1.28% price increase over the past 24 hours, surging to $0.00000737 at the time of writing. With a market capitalization of $4.34 billion, SHIB remains one of the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market cap. In this technical analysis, we'll analyze the key metrics behind SHIB's latest price move and uncover insights into where the asset could be headed next.
SHIB's 24-hour trading volume came in at $60.77 million, indicating decent interest and momentum despite the bear market conditions across crypto assets. The meme coin's price rose 1.28% over the last day but remains down 2.37% over the past week. Zooming out further, SHIB has declined 27.58% over the last month and 29.27% across the previous 6 months.
The recent price uptick can be viewed as a minor recovery after SHIB's steep declines in 2022. However, the technicals suggest there could be more room for the rally to extend. SHIB is currently testing resistance around $0.0000075 after breaking out above its 20-day moving average.
Additionally, the meme coin has been making a series of higher lows since bottoming out around $0.0000065 in mid-August. If SHIB can close and hold above short-term resistance, it could pave the way for a move back up to retest the $0.000009 level. The bulls will need to see large trading volumes on a breakout for follow-through.
On the flip side, if SHIB faces rejection and falls back below support around $0.000007, sellers could take back control and push the price to new lows. The bears may look to target the June 2022 swing low around $0.000006 if the uptrend stalls in the short term.
Shiba Inu Macro Environment Analysis
Looking at the macro environment, the meme coin likely received a boost in tandem with improved risk appetite in the crypto market on September 15. Bitcoin climbed back above $20,000 as equities rallied, signaling traders were willing to buy assets perceived as risky after the hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation reading on Tuesday.
However, the Fed's stance on aggressively hiking interest rates continues to weigh on cryptos and tech stocks. More volatility is expected through the remainder of 2022 as the Fed tries to crush runaway inflation. Recession risks also present a bearish headwind for speculative assets like SHIB in the intermediate term.
Overall, Shiba Inu's short-term outlook appears constructive while below $0.0000075 resistance. But the meme coin remains vulnerable to larger macro weakness and stalling momentum if risk assets rollover again.
Shiba Inu Long-Term Price Prediction
Zooming out to the bigger picture, I expect further volatility and potential downside for SHIB over the next 6 to 12 months. Shiba Inu remains deep in a bear market along with the broader crypto space.
Given the likelihood of a US recession by mid-2023, meme coins with little fundamental value like SHIB could face intense selling pressure. The Fed's rate hikes and quantitative tightening have yet to fully impact markets and may weigh on speculative altcoins.
Additionally, retail trader enthusiasm for SHIB appears to have dried up significantly from the meme coin's peak in late 2021. With less hype and social media buzz, SHIB looks unlikely to recapture its massive gains from last year's frenzy.
Technically, SHIB is showing potential for short-term upside toward $0.000009 if previous resistance levels are broken. However, the multi-month chart paints a bleak picture, with SHIB trading far below its 2021 high near $0.000088.
Until the Fed pivots to an easier monetary policy and recession fears fade, the meme coin could trend lower or trade sideways within a wide $0.000005 to $0.00001 range. I expect SHIB will remain under heavy pressure through mid-2023, with the next bullish breakout unlikely until 2024 or later.
Can Shiba Inu Reach $0.01 Long-Term?
Despite the current bearish outlook, many SHIB holders continue to wonder if the meme coin could ever reach $0.01. This price level has become a symbolic target after SHIB rallied to highs above $0.00008 last year. However, with Shiba Inu's massive circulating supply, hitting $0.01 would require drastic fundamental improvements.
Based on the current supply of 549.1 trillion SHIB, the meme coin's market cap would need to reach over $5 trillion for the price to hit $0.01. For perspective, that market cap is larger than Apple and Microsoft combined. Realistically, it's difficult to see SHIB reaching this price point without a massive supply burn.
Additionally, as a purely speculative asset, SHIB lacks the real-world utility needed to justify such a valuation. The developers would need to focus on long-term use cases beyond hype and speculation before $0.01 or higher prices become feasible again.
In summary, traders with a long-term perspective should temper expectations when it comes to SHIB reaching a cent. The macro environment poses significant hurdles over the next year at minimum. While short squeezes and temporary rallies are possible, SHIB hitting $0.01 remains an extremely distant possibility barring major supply reductions.
Shiba Inu's 1.28% bounce back to $0.00000737 appears constructive in the short term as technical resistance is tested. However, considerable risks remain in play with the Fed's hawkish policies, likelihood of recession, and bearish sentiment weighing on speculative altcoins.
While further volatile upside is possible, SHIB looks unlikely to recapture its massive 2021 gains over the next 6 to 12 months. The path back to $0.01 remains hugely challenging without a massive supply burn. Traders should exercise caution and manage risks if holding SHIB or other meme coins during this crypto bear market. Fundamental development and shifts in the macro landscape will ultimately determine if SHIB can start to regain its bullish momentum.