Solana's 3.85% Price Surge to $18.39: Key Takeaways for Traders on September 12, 2023

Solana's SOL token has seen a solid 3.85% price increase over the past 24 hours, with the price rising from $17.70 to $18.39 at the time of writing. This latest price surge comes after a period of declines for SOL, with the token down 6.04% over the past week. However, zooming out shows SOL remains in a clear downtrend, with prices falling 25.06% over the past month and 9.40% over the past 6 months.

Despite the recent downturn, Solana retains a top 10 position by market capitalization at $7.52 billion. Trading volume over the past 24 hours hit $418.99 million, showing there is still significant interest in SOL among traders and investors. Now let's dive deeper into the key technicals and developments behind Solana's latest single-day price jump.

Reclaiming the 50-day MA Offers Hope

A key factor giving bulls hope is SOL reclaiming the 50-day moving average, which currently sits around $18.15. SOL broke back above this important long-term moving average with its price surge over the past 24 hours. The 50-day MA often acts as both support and resistance, and SOL holding above it could signal the downtrend is slowing.

The token is still below the 200-day MA near $25.50, but reclaiming the 50-day MA is an important incremental step. If SOL can consolidate above the 50-day in the coming days and weeks, it could provide the foundation for a reversal back towards the 200-day MA and horizontal resistance around $30.

Short Squeeze Adds Fuel to the Rally

Looking at shorter timeframes reveals the price surge was likely fueled by a short squeeze. SOL saw rising short interest in recent weeks as the price downtrend continued. This meant a large number of traders were betting against a price recovery.

However, once SOL started gaining upside momentum, these short traders were forced to buy back their positions to limit losses. This self-feeding dynamic is what fuels short squeezes higher, as bearish traders scramble for the exits at the same time.

The sharp spike on strong volume indicates the short-squeeze played a key role. If the buying momentum continues, SOL could see a classic short-covering rally back towards the 200-day MA. However, if bullish momentum stalls, the price could fade back towards the recent swing low around $15.

Developments on Solana Remain Strong Despite Price Weakness

Zooming out to a longer-term view, it's important to keep perspective on the continued developer adoption and growth on the Solana network itself, despite recent price weakness in the SOL token.

Solana continues to boast one of the most active and vibrant developer communities in the crypto space. The low fees and high transaction speeds Solana offers have made it a go-to blockchain for creating decentralized apps and launching NFT projects.

Several metrics reflect the surging activity on Solana. Total value locked on Solana DeFi protocols recently surpassed $1 billion. The number of active users on Solana is up 53% over the past 3 months. Meanwhile, the network processes over 2,600 transactions per second, significantly more than Ethereum.

These strong on-chain metrics suggest that once the macro backdrop improves, SOL could be primed for a powerful recovery thanks to the continued adoption of Solana.

6-12 Month Price Prediction - Caution Warranted but $50+ Possible

Looking ahead to the coming 6-12 months, caution is warranted given the uncertain macroeconomic environment. However, if inflation continues trending downward and the Fed eases up on rate hikes, cryptocurrencies could be poised for a broader recovery.

In this scenario, Solana's strong developer traction and activity could allow the SOL token to bounce back towards its all-time high around $260. More conservatively, reclaiming the 200-day MA and prior support around $50 seems an achievable 6-12 month target if macro conditions improve.

Still, the potential for a recession and ongoing market volatility limit the upside potential over this timeframe. Traders may want to wait for confirmation of a durable bottoming formation before turning aggressively bullish on SOL. But for long-term investors, accumulating positions during periods of weakness can pay off handsomely during the next full-fledged crypto bull market.

Will Solana's Price Rebound Gain Momentum?

Solana has seen a nice price bounce over the past 24 hours, fueled by short covering and oversold conditions. However, the key question is whether this rebound has legs or if it is just a temporary blip within the broader downtrend.

There are several bullish factors supporting more upside for SOL in the near term. The reclaiming of the 50-day moving average and bullish converging wedge on the daily chart both signal potential for more gains. Meanwhile, the sharp spike on a short squeeze often leads to continued momentum in the direction of the breakout.

However, broader macro uncertainty and SOL's history of volatility and pullbacks warrants caution. The token could easily fade back towards the recent swing low around $15 if bulls can't maintain positive momentum above the 50-day MA.

Traders will be closely watching to see if buying volume remains elevated and SOL can start making strides back towards overhead resistance near $28. As long as the 50-day MA holds as support, the short-term outlook remains bullish. But a close back below this key moving average would negate the fledgling uptrend.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Solana?

With SOL off over 80% from its all-time high, many investors are wondering if now is a good time to buy the dip or if more downside is in store. Dollar cost averaging can help mitigate the risks. But for traders with a higher risk tolerance, signs of a potential bottom are starting to emerge.

The recent bullish price action combined with extremely oversold conditions on larger timeframes suggest a cyclical low may be close. SOL's RSI reached the low 20's on the weekly chart, levels that have marked good long-term buying opportunities in the past.

Additionally, SOL appears to have formed a double bottom near $15, with wicks below that level being bought up quickly. If $15 continues holding as support, it could give dip buyers confidence that a bottom is forming.

Cryptocurrencies remain highly speculative and volatile though. Those looking to buy the SOL dip should use appropriate position sizing and risk management. A drop back towards $10 can't be ruled out if the macro environment takes another turn for the worse. But for long-term believers in Solana, buying near these oversold levels could pay off tremendously during the next bull market.


In summary, Solana's latest single-day price bounce reflects improving short-term momentum and oversold conditions. However, caution remains warranted given the uncertain macro backdrop and SOL's history of volatility. Long-term holders may look to buy the dip at these oversold levels, but aggressive traders may want to wait for confirmation of a durable low before going all in. Regardless of strategy, appropriate risk management remains crucial in navigating these choppy markets. Solana remains one of the most promising blockchain projects, and its strong developer metrics bode well for long-term upside in the years ahead.

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