Solana's price has seen a significant 6% drop over the past 24 hours, falling from $19.47 down to $18.36 at the time of writing. This latest price movement comes as part of a broader downtrend for Solana over the past month, which has seen the asset's value decline by almost 25%.
In this report, we will analyze Solana's latest price activity and examine some of the key metrics that traders should be aware of. We will also look at some of the potential factors driving Solana's recent downward trajectory, before providing an outlook on what could be in store for Solana's price over the coming weeks and months.
Examining Solana's Latest Price Trends
Looking first at Solana's most recent price action, we can see that the 6% fall over the past day forms part of a longer-term downtrend over the past week and month. Zooming out to the 7-day view, Solana has dropped around 5%, while the monthly view reveals a more concerning 24% drop in value.
Shorter-term indicators paint a slightly more positive picture, with Solana staging something of a recovery over the past hour with a 0.25% uptick. However, it has been unable to find support to halt the broader multi-day slide.
Daily trading volumes remain robust, coming in at $346 million over the past 24 hours. However, this represents a more than 10% decline compared to the previous day, indicating fading buying pressure in the market.
Evaluating Key Metrics and On-Chain Data
In terms of Solana's underlying network health and activity, metrics remain solid despite the recent price weakness. Solana continues to process over 2,500 transactions per second, representing sector-leading speed and throughput capabilities.
The total value locked into Solana DeFi protocols has declined around 4% over the past week, but sits at a still-healthy level of $1.2 billion. Top Solana NFT collections like DeGods, SolPunks and Solana Monkey Business continue to record strong sales and trade volumes as well.
From an on-chain perspective, whale activity shows large holders have been net distributors over recent weeks, with addresses holding between 1,000-10,000 SOL recording falling balances since mid-August.
This distribution has been providing sell-side pressure on the market, allowing more small-to-medium holders to accumulate. However, broader risk appetite has still dictated Solana's price direction over this period.
Macro Environment Remains Unfavorable for Altcoins
Zooming out to the wider cryptocurrency markets, conditions have remained challenging for altcoins like Solana in recent weeks. Persistently high inflation figures have fueled expectations of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
This monetary policy tightening has boosted the U.S. dollar significantly and sunk risk asset prices, including equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen below $20,000 once again, dragging the broader altcoin markets down with it.
With inflation still running hot, there are expectations that interest rates could peak above 5% in 2023, negatively impacting investment flows into riskier assets. Solana and other layer-1 blockchain tokens could remain under pressure as long as this macro environment persists.
Price Outlook: Further Weakness Before a Potential Trend Reversal
In terms of Solana's price outlook, further near-term weakness seems likely given the overwhelmingly bearish macro conditions. Any rallies are likely to run into stiff resistance around the $20 level and the 21-day moving average, currently around $21.
However, there are some tentative signs emerging that inflation could be nearing its peak. If inflation rolls over in the coming months, expectations for less hawkish Fed policy could spark a trend reversal. This would likely coincide with a bottoming out of Bitcoin's price before a renewed uptrend.
Under this scenario, Solana could bottom out in the $15-17 range in the next 1-2 months, before rebounding strongly into the end of 2023 and early 2024. A return to all-time highs above $260 appears unlikely in the short-term, but a push back toward the $100 level could materialize over the next 6-12 months if the macro backdrop improves.
Will Solana's Developer Mindshare Weather the Recent Storm?
Despite its recent price weakness, Solana continues to enjoy strong developer support due to its leading transaction speeds and low fees. The blockchain hosted the second-most hackathons in Q2 2022, trailing only Ethereum, which highlights its popularity within the crypto developer community.
However, some developers have expressed concerns around Solana's intermittent network performance issues over the past year. extended outages in June 2022 and September 2022 dented confidence in the network's reliability.
Nevertheless, the Solana Foundation and core developers have taken steps to improve stability and prevent outages going forward. Initiatives like the Ignition launch and turbine upgrade aim to optimize Solana for scale and strengthen network resilience.
Provided no further major outages occur, developer support is likely to remain strong. Solana offers a compelling value proposition for Web3 projects with its high speeds and low costs. The network also supports developer-friendly languages like Rust and C++, opening it up to a broad pool of programmers.
Ultimately, Solana's long-term growth will rely heavily on retaining its developer community. Its ability to prevent further outages while offering an attractive platform for building Web3 projects will be key measuring sticks to watch.
Is Now the Time for Traders to Buy the Dip on Solana?
Solana's nearly 25% price plunge over the past month is likely to have grabbed the attention of bargain-hunting traders eyeing a discount entry point. However, caution is still warranted given the overwhelmingly bearish macro backdrop.
Buying into weakness has proven unsuccessful throughout 2022, as temporary bounces have quickly reversed back to lower lows. Traders should therefore wait for definitive technical signals before calling a lasting bottom.
These key signals could include a bullish divergence on momentum indicators, a break of the current downtrend channel, or Bitcoin establishing a clean higher low to confirm a trend change.
Until such confirmation arises, dollar-cost averaging is likely the lower risk approach. Traders can scale into a long-term position at intervals in case further downside occurs.
Once Solana forms a definitive price bottom and breaks its multi-week downtrend, exposure can be built more aggressively. Solana's market-leading transaction speeds, developer traction and growth potential make it an attractive long-term investment once macro conditions improve.
In summary, traders should remain cautious on Solana in the near-term as bearish macro forces persist. Further downside toward the $15-17 range appears possible. However, signs of peaking inflation and less hawkish Fed policy could spark a trend reversal later in 2023. Solana's strong developer mindshare bodes well for a potential recovery once the macro backdrop improves. Dollar-cost averaging can limit downside risk for long-term investors.