Stellar's 0.87% Price Drop to $0.1189: Key Takeaways for August 29, 2023

Stellar's XLM token declined -0.87% over the past 24 hours to $0.1189, continuing its broader downtrend over the past month. As the 16th largest cryptocurrency by market cap at $3.26 billion, Stellar aims to facilitate fast and affordable cross-border payments. But XLM has struggled to gain upside momentum in 2022's bear market.

Over the past day, trading volume for Stellar was $52.16 million. This points to decent liquidity, though it remains well off the highs seen last year during XLM's price peak. Looking at the percentage changes across varying timeframes provides further insight:

  • In the past hour, Stellar dropped -0.45%, tracking overall crypto market weakness.
  • The -0.87% daily decline shows selling pressure persists for XLM despite oversold technical conditions.
  • Over the past week, Stellar has dropped a notable -4.01%, highlighting a strengthening bearish trend.
  • The monthly losses are even worse, with XLM plunging -25.43% over the past 30 days.
  • However, in the last 6 months, Stellar has managed to claw back 36.51%, fueled by its June/July recovery rally.

In summary, Stellar shows an interesting bifurcation, with severe weakness over the past month pointing to further downside, but the multi-month view looking brighter on a relative basis versus competitors.

What Key Drivers Are Influencing Stellar's Price Action?

Based on the data, a few factors seem to be exerting the most influence on Stellar's price action:

  • Broader macro pessimism - XLM tends to trade in line with overall crypto sentiment, which has deteriorated sharply amid inflation and recession fears.
  • Limited adoption - Stellar is still struggling to build real-world payment volume and partnerships to drive token utility and demand.
  • Competitive threats - Faster and cheaper payment coins like XRP and Nano contest Stellar's value proposition for money transfers.
  • Technical momentum - With XLM in a strong downtrend across key moving averages, bearish technical patterns reinforce selling pressure.
  • Lack of differentiation - Stellar lacks a compelling narrative or tech edge to distinguish itself from alternatives in a crowded field.

Without a major catalyst like a high-profile partnership, significant XLM upside seems unlikely until macro conditions improve and investor risk appetite rebounds. For now, continued range-bound chop seems probable.

Is a Stellar Price Recovery to $0.50 Feasible This Cycle?

In my view, Stellar regaining its 2021 highs near $0.50 appears very unlikely before this current crypto cycle ends in 2025. Here is the rationale behind my bearish outlook:

  • As a payment token, XLM is deeply out of favor currently, with most capital flowing to smart contract platforms and DeFi projects instead.
  • Stellar lacks the network effects, developer mindshare, and real-world volume that competitors like XRP and Nano have accrued.
  • XLM remains mired in long-term technical downtrends on the daily and weekly charts that will take extensive time to reverse.
  • Macro headwinds like QT and interest rate hikes will continue weighing on speculative assets into 2023 at least.
  • XLM still faces stiff competition from CBDCs and faster payment rails, limiting its total addressable market.
  • Once the bull market returns, major layer 1s will likely rally strongly first and attract most capital flows.

Considering these headwinds, a more realistic upside target for this cycle seems to be the $0.25-$0.30 range. Stellar would need a major surprise catalyst or parabolic late-cycle rally to reach $0.50 again soon.

How Can Traders Capitalize on Stellar's Price Volatility?

For traders who want to profit from Stellar's price swings in both directions, here are some strategies to consider:

  • Spot trading - Buying low and selling high allows capitalizing on XLM volatility for short-term gains. Technical and momentum indicators help time entries and exits.
  • Margin trading - Using leverage when spot trading magnifies gains but also increases risk on positions. Strict risk management is critical.
  • Options - Selling XLM call/put options allows benefiting from premium decay if price remains rangebound.
  • Futures - Stellar futures contracts enable shorting XLM or speculating on upside with leverage. But losses can spiral quickly.
  • Mean reversion - When XLM diverges significantly from key moving averages, mean reversion strategies buy/sell expecting a bounce back.
  • Range trading - Well-defined ranges provide opportunities to buy support and sell resistance when price hits these zones.

With its high volatility, Stellar offers lucrative trading opportunities. But risk management through proper position sizing, stop losses, and avoiding overleverage remains essential.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Stellar Despite the Downtrend?

After cratering 80% from its highs, Stellar sits at a pivotal point where investors must weigh buying at discounted prices against the risk of further declines if XLM's technical downtrend continues. The cases for and against buying now:

Arguments for buying:

  • XLM offers compelling value relative to historical prices and upside potential.
  • Long-term fundamentals like fast/cheap transactions remain decent.
  • Active development team focused on payment solutions.
  • Technicals are extremely oversold, signaling capitulation may be close.

Arguments against buying:

  • Bearish sentiment and selling pressure show no signs of abating.
  • XLM lacks clear catalysts to spark sustained reversal.
  • Better opportunities exist among smart contract platforms.
  • Stellar ecosystem lacks network effects compared to competitors.

Dollar cost averaging has merit in these uncertain conditions. Investors can buy some XLM now to start building a position, but leave ample dry powder to keep averaging down if prices continue falling. Trying to perfectly time the bottom is likely futile.

Does Stellar's Decline Signal Its Time Is Running Out?

Once considered a top contender for digital payments, Stellar is at a potential make-or-break point after badly lagging the market. Growing questions over its long-term viability have emerged. But there remain arguments favoring its staying power:

The case for Stellar's resilience:

  • Management team is battle-tested and continuing protocol development.
  • Stellar network still handles a high volume of cross-border transactions.
  • XLM offers fast settlement and negligible fees, fulfilling key payment coin criteria.
  • The project maintains strong partnerships and institutional investment.

The case against Stellar's future prospects:

  • Cryptocurrency payments have underwhelmed, with broader adoption failing to materialize.
  • Fierce competition from Ripple, Nano, CBDCs, and other payment options weaken XLM's value proposition.
  • Stellar lacks the vibrant developer ecosystem or network effects of leading smart contract blockchains.
  • Ongoing founder Jed McCaleb selling of XLM tokens weighs on sentiment and prices.

On balance, Stellar still seems to retain upside potential in targeted use cases. But execution risks loom large, and macro conditions must improve markedly to reinvigorate XLM bullish momentum. Its long-term outlook appears cloudier than just a year ago.

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