VeChain's VET Rises 3% to $0.01951 - Bullish Breakout or Dead Cat Bounce?

VeChain's native token VET saw a moderate 3% gain over the past 24 hours, climbing to around $0.01951. This marks a breakout from the tight trading range between $0.018 and $0.019 for most of the past two weeks.

Reviewing Recent VET Trading Activity

Despite the upside price movement, VET's 24-hour trading volume came in at just $23 million - barely above its average level. This points to relatively low conviction behind the rally.

Over the past week, VET is down around 3% as it consolidated. However, for the past month VET remains up a solid 23% as it rebounded from 2022 lows. The long-term picture is less rosy, with VET still down 11% in the past 6 months.

Key VET Price Levels to Watch

With the 3% breakout, VET managed to close above short-term resistance at $0.019. Further overhead resistance sits around $0.021 - the 38.2% Fib retracement of VET's decline since April.

On the downside, VET has support at $0.019 and the 20-day moving average near $0.0185. Below that sits stronger support around $0.0175 where VET bottomed in June. Losing $0.0175 could put VET back into oversold territory.

What's the Outlook for VeChain?

While VET's breakout today is an encouraging development, follow-through buying will be needed to confirm a sustainable uptrend. Without a significant expansion in trading volumes, the rally looks questionable.

I expect VET may struggle to break above $0.021 resistance in the short-term. A pullback to retest support around $0.019 looks likely. VET's long-term adoption prospects remain positive, but upside appears limited near-term absent bullish catalysts.

Should You Buy VET After the 3% Pop?

VET could appear attractive to bottom-fishers following the breakout above $0.019 resistance. However, prudent traders may prefer waiting for a pullback before initiating fresh long positions.

Entering on a retest of $0.019 support would help confirm buyers' commitment. VET remains a long-term hold, but caution is prudent until volume expands meaningfully to signal real conviction behind the rally.

Can VET Regain Its All-Time High This Cycle?

Given VeChain's promising fundamentals and enterprise adoption traction, VET does likely have upside potential to revisit its 2018 high around $0.025 this cycle - representing 30%+ upside from current levels.

However, for a more substantial rally to levels above its former all-time high, VET needs to keep expanding real-world usage and utility cases. Wider crypto market strength will also be required. If adoption keeps growing steadily, VET could make a run at $0.03 or higher later this cycle. But many variables are at play. Continued execution is key.

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